March 3, 2026 (InvestinChina.asia) – Chinese economist Ren Zeping has outlined five lessons from the recent U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran, arguing the event signals a definitive shift toward a world governed by “jungle rules” where power dictates security.
In an analysis, Ren frames the conflict as evidence of the post-Cold War order’s collapse. He contends that traditional diplomacy and negotiated security are now illusions in an era of explicit power politics.
Lesson One: The Fatal Cost of Illusion
Ren’s first and most stark lesson asserts that clinging to the illusion of peace when an adversary has resolved on war invites catastrophe. He characterizes the strikes, which occurred amid diplomatic engagements, as a brutal “talk-and-attack” maneuver. The core warning is unsparing: “When the other side has already decided on your destruction, to cling to the fantasy of negotiation is to guarantee a devastating lesson.”
His conclusion, drawing on classical maxims, is that security is a prize won by strength, not granted at a table: “To secure peace through war, then peace endures; to seek peace through peace, then peace perishes.” Outcomes not secured on the battlefield, he argues, are impossible to achieve at the negotiating table.
Lesson Two: The Return of ‘Jungle Rules’
The economist posits that the event confirms the world has entered a phase of unvarnished realpolitik, or “jungle rules”. He describes the current period as the late, turbulent stage of a great cycle, where geopolitical instability is the norm and national strength, not international law, guarantees survival.
Lesson Three: The Internal Threat
A key warning focuses on internal vulnerabilities. Ren suggests the precision of the strikes highlights the existential danger of societal division or subversion. “A society divided is a society vulnerable to catastrophic precision,” he argues, positioning national unity as the ultimate defensive bulwark.
Lesson Four: The Perils of Overreach
Ren draws on historical precedent, warning that “even a great state, if fond of war, will perish.” He suggests that a pattern of escalating actions risks creating a global backlash, arguing that hegemony sows the seeds of its own decline by uniting others against it.
Lesson Five: The Necessity of Self-Reliance
The final lesson underscores that in this new age, security cannot be outsourced. Ren advocates for a strategy of comprehensive national strength, concluding that true peace “is a prize won and maintained through one’s own strength,” built on economic resilience, technological prowess, and defensive capability.
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