July 31, 2026 (InvestinChina.asia) – After a near-total disappearance from state-bank shelves since late 2025, the five-year personal negotiable certificate of deposit (NCD) made a limited July comeback, with Industrial & Commercial Bank of China absent but Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank all re-listing the tenor at a uniform 1.60% annualized rate for a 200,000-yuan minimum ticket. Joint-stock lenders followed selectively at 1.75%–1.79%, and a handful of private banks—Fumin, Zhongbang, Xishang—pushed 3-year paper past 2.00%, with 5-year private-bank NCDs reaching 2.05%. Analysts and bankers alike call it a tactical, liability-management move, not a rate-cycle reversal.
State Banks Break the Ice, Quotas Bind
Bank of China reopened the tenor on July 1 with its 2026 first tranche of personal NCDs across seven maturities; the 5-year clip priced at 1.60%, 5 bps above the 3-year print, and sold out online within hours—by July 29 the 1.60% line showed “insufficient quota” on the mobile app, leaving only the lower-yielding “Product No. 3” at 1.55% with thinner demand. Agricultural Bank issued its “Jinsui 2026 No. 33” 5-year NCD on July 8 at 1.60%, 200,000-yuan entry, but restricted sale to branch counters through Oct. 15; a Beijing outlet said paper quotas remained at the desk. Construction Bank listed two 5-year NCDs on July 10 at 1.55% and 1.60%, both 200,000-yuan minimum, transferable, with the 1.60% line still showing ample online quota as of July 31. ICBC, BoCom and Postal Savings have not relisted 5-year NCDs; all six majors still sell 5-year ordinary time deposits at 1.60% for a 5,000-yuan minimum.
Joint-Stock, City and Private Banks: Laddering Up
Ping An (July 14) priced 5-year at 1.75%; Huaxia (July 15) ran six 5-year clips at 1.75%–1.80% depending on ticket size; Minsheng offered 1.75%–1.79%. Most other joint-stock names kept 5-year NCDs delisted, though their 3-year NCDs (1.70%–1.75%) already out-yield the state-bank 5-year. Among city banks, Nanjing still sells a 5-year NCD at 1.60%—below its 3-year 1.75%/1.78% Jiangsu-only clip, a textbook yield inversion. Private banks sit at the top: Xishang 3-year at 2.10%, Fumin 3-year 2.15% / 5-year 2.05%, Zhongbang 3-year 2.00% / 5-year 2.05%, Xinwang 3- and 5-year both at 1.90%.
Why Now, and Why Not a Trend
Three forces converge. First, liability timing: the 2022–2023 precautionary-savings wave left a wall of 3-year NCDs—ICBC’s 2022 first tranche paid ~3.35%—coming due in 2026; relisting a capped 5-year at 1.60% lets banks refinance rolling maturities at roughly half the legacy coupon. Second, net-interest-margin defense: the commercial-bank NIM hit 1.40% in Q1 2026, down 2 bps from 1.42% in Q4 2025 and a historical low, with large-bank NIM at 1.29%; capping long-duration liabilities is the fastest way to stop further margin bleed. Third, the PBOC’s June 12 draft revision to the 2015 NCD rulebook—cutting the individual entry ticket from 300,000 to 200,000 yuan, admitting third-party platforms for transfer/early-redemption, and adding the DR rate as a floating benchmark—reset the playing field just before the July relaunch.
Postal Savings researcher Lou Feipeng and Guotai Haitong banking chief Ma Tingting both frame the relaunch as “differentiated liability structuring,” not a bottom in rates; most joint-stock banks stay on watch, and even at CCB the 5-year line is moving slower than 1-year quotas that clear by mid-morning at branch level.
Secondary Market Tells the Real Story
Banks have promoted the “NCD transfer” tab to the front page of their apps. Legacy paper tells the tale: 2022–2023 vintage 3-year NCDs at 3%+ trade at persistent premiums and vanish on listing; 2025–2026 vintage paper clustered at 1.5%–1.8% sits with thin turnover. One ICBC transfer-zone lot—a 2025-originated 1.90% clip with 544 days left—was quoted at an implied 1.71% post-transfer yield, below its original coupon, underscoring how far the curve has repriced.
Macro Mirror
Read against the July 30 Politburo shift to counter-cyclical adjustment and the NDRC’s “six networks” capex plan, the NCD relaunch is the deposit-side mirror image of the same script: banks are not competing for long money because the real-economy loan bid is soft (July composite PMI 49.3, construction 47.0) and the loan side cannot absorb 2%+ funding. The 1.60% state-bank 5-year line is a liquidity-management tool, not a savings product with a future.